Jan 4, 2007, 2:12 AM
Post #143 of 764
Re: [jargreen] My Fiction Rankings
Have to admit I'm a little confused. I mean that seriously. Take a look at this comparison of your rankings, the U.S. News rankings, and The Kealey Scale, and I think you'll find that you are much closer to Kealey than U.S. News:
* COMPARISON *
Your Top 20 vs. The Kealey Scale Top 20 --> Schools in common (16/20): Michigan, Iowa, Virginia, Houston, Texas, Johns Hopkins, Massachusetts, Washington in St. Louis, Minnesota, Columbia, Florida, Cornell, Brown, Syracuse, Indiana, NYU.
Your Top 20 vs. The Kealey Scale Top 20 --> Schools NOT in common (4/20): Illinois, Arizona State, Colorado State, Arizona.
If we assume--as Kealey would, I do, and U.S. News does/do, that rankings are not exact, and that you look at "tiers" as much as specific numerical orderings--we'd have to say that, as to the Top 20 programs, you must be saying you feel the 1997 rankings are "more reliable" than the 2006 rankings because Kealey did not give Illinois, Arizona State, Colorado State, and Arizona the "Top 20 props" that you did.
Problem there: Kealey would rank Illinois somewhere between 51 and 53 (as it's one of the five non-low residency programs in the Honorable Mention section); U.S. News ranked it 72; and you ranked it 17. So Kealey is more than 20 ranking spots closer to your ranking than U.S. News was.
Arizona State: Kealey 34, You 18, U.S. News 20-29 (as U.S. News had Arizona State in a ten-way tie for 20th place in the rankings, we can't know whether ASU was the worst of those ten #20s, the best, or somewhere in between). Advantage: U.S. News, but potentially by as few as 5 spots.
Arizona: Kealey 27, You 14, U.S. News 9. Advantage: U.S. News, by 8 spots.
Colorado State: Kealey 47, You 20, U.S. News 50. Advantage: Kealey, by 3 spots.
Your Top 21-40 vs. The Kealey Scale Top 21-40 --> Schools in common (11/20): Washington, Montana, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Hollins, Arkansas, George Mason, Notre Dame, Utah, Sarah Lawrence.
Your Top 21-40 vs. The Kealey Scale Top 21-40 --> Schools NOT in common (8/20): Bowling Green, Oregon, UC-Irvine, Emerson, SIU, UNC-Wilmington, UNLV, Ohio State.
Not counted: Warren Wilson (The Kealey Scale doesn't address low-res programs).
Bowling Green State: You 22, Kealey NR, U.S. News 72-81. Advantage: unknown.
Oregon: You 26, Kealey 18, U.S. News 33-36. Advantage: tie.
UC Irvine: You 27, Kealey 1, U.S. News 6-7. Advantage: U.S. News, by 5 or 6 spots.
Emerson: You 28, Kealey 45, U.S. News 20-29. Advantage: U.S. News, by 9 to 16 spots.
Southern Illinois: You 31, Kealey 51-53, U.S. News 50-61. Advantage: tie.
UNC Wilmington: You 32, Kealey 48, U.S. News NR. Advantage: Kealey, by unknown amount.
UNLV: You 35, Kealey 17, U.S. News NR. Advantage: Kealey, by unknown amount.
Ohio State: You 39, Kealey NR, U.S. News 37-45. Advantage: U.S. News, by unknown amount.
Your Top 41-50 vs. The Kealey Scale Top 41-50 --> Schools in common (5/10): Eastern Washington, Iowa State, Brooklyn, LSU, Maryland
Your Top 41-50 vs. The Kealey Scale Top 41-50 --> Schools NOT in common (5/10): Alabama, Florida State, UNC-Greensboro, Penn State, Western Michigan.
Alabama: You 41, Kealey 33, U.S. News 37-45. Advantage: U.S. News, by 4 spots.
Florida State: You 42, Kealey 19, U.S. News 37-45. Advantage: U.S. News, by 19 spots.
UNC Greensboro: You 45, Kealey 38, U.S. News 37-45. Advantage: unknown.
Western Michigan: You 48, Kealey NR, U.S. News 46. Advantage: U.S. News, by unknown amount.
Penn State: You 49, Kealey 29, U.S. News 37-45. Advantage: U.S. News, by 4-8 spots.
For the Top 40 rankings at least (though the last ten rankings, too, are deceptively close), it would seem to be a draw--your rankings align roughly equally with Kealey and U.S. News, making neither one (presumably, "in your view") more accurate or reliable than the other.
Except for the one fact you're missing: where Kealey and you have listed the same schools in a tier, U.S. News often is nowhere close to your (and Kealey's) rankings. For instance, here are some notable discrepancies between your rankings for schools in each tier and U.S. News's rankings:
You (Top 20): Minnesota (U.S. News 62-71); Syracuse (20-29); Texas (30-32).
You (21-40): Mississippi (U.S. News unranked); Wisconsin (U.S. News unranked); Notre Dame (U.S. News 83-94); Montana (U.S. News 10); Washington (U.S. News 10).
You (41-50): Brooklyn (U.S. News 62-71), LSU (U.S. News unranked); Maryland (U.S. News 20-29).
Consider, that just in terms of Minnesota, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and LSU--five schools which are in your top 50--U.S. News didn't even rank three of them in the top 94 schools, and two schools were ranked by U.S. News approximately 50 spots away from your own ranking. Then there are these additional striking discrepancies: UNC Wilmington (63+ [i.e. unknown] spots of difference between your rankings and U.S. News); UNLV (59+ [i.e. unknown] spots of difference); Bowling Green (50-59 spots); Texas (25-27); Maryland (21); SIU (19-30); Brooklyn (16-25); Montana (8-13); Washington (6-11); Syracuse (5-14).
Where you and Kealey disagree (i.e., where you put schools in different "tiers"), it's often not by much. Only five schools saw discrepancies of more than 20 spots: Illinois (34 spots, the largest measureable disagreement); Bowling Green (33); Colorado State (27); UC-Irvine (26); and Florida State (23). Eleven schools saw 20-spot or less disparities: SIU (20); Penn State (20); UNLV (18); Emerson (17); UNC-Wilmington (16); Arizona State (16); Ohio State (16); Arizona (13); Oregon (8); Alabama (8); UNC Greensboro (7). Average disagreement: 18 spots, with Western Michigan being the only indeterminate discrepancy (you have WMU at 48, and Kealey goes up to about 55, so it might be as little as an 8 spot difference, depending upon whether WMU is ranked #56 by Kealey [theoretically speaking] or higher).
It seems to me that your own rankings prove that The Kealey Scale is closer to what you believe than U.S. News is, and even then the difference is exaggerated by just a few schools you disagree vehemently with Kealey on: i.e., only five schools total were more than 20 spots from where you thought they should be, and remember that 20 spots could well be "in-tier"; for U.S. News, it's twelve schools total who are beyond that margin of error. So only 10% of The Kealey Scale Top 50 rankings (5 of 50) were outside a reasonable margin of error, whereas 24% of U.S. News rankings (12 of 50) were outside that margin.
U.S. News therefore was 2.4 times more likely than The Kealey Scale to result in an "out of MoE [21-spot+]" difference with your own rankings. How does that make them more accurate or reliable, as opposed to what I think you're really saying, which is that they're more comfort(able/ing) to you, because you hate that UC-Irvine pick?
(This post was edited by umass76 on Jan 4, 2007, 2:30 AM)